Trump was elected to the 45th President of the United States seems to be a black swan event, but on the day of the stock market gave the cheers, its market prospect as reasons behind the presidential campaign promise on the implementation of tax reform, financial reform, increase the budget, and infrastructure projects such as policy may impact on the U.S. economy, song all the way to the U.S. stock market, the current has reached a record high.

However, the VIX, often referred to as the panic index, is now at historic lows for the s&p 500's expected 30-day volatility.

Typically, the VIX is negatively correlated with the s&p 500.

The s&p 500 is hovering at a record high, while the VIX is historically low, indicating a significant pullback in U.S. stocks.

There are more black swans in 2016. What about this year?

Market is volatile, in addition to the current U.S. tensions with north Korea, the federal reserve shrinkage table, may raise interest rates again in December, the European central bank may determine from quantitative easing, and relates to China's top leaders transition and the development of China in the next five years, "19" forthcoming another could have a strong impact on the market will but neglected the potential risk is due on December 8, the U.S. debt ceiling big test.

On September 6, U.S. President Donald trump struck a deal with democratic and republican congressional leaders to extend the U.S. government's borrowing limit until mid-december.

On September 8, the house of representatives by 316 votes to 90 votes against, voted by the debt ceiling suspended until December 8th, and provide bill of $15.25 billion in aid for hurricane damage, which means that the us debt ceiling crisis temporarily resolved, to avoid a government shutdown.

But the problem itself has not been solved, just postponed, congress must approve the new debt ceiling by December 8 and set a new budget.

Support the stock market rise trump tax reform, financial reform, increase the budget, and infrastructure projects such as policy requires a large number of government financial support, if the debt ceiling negotiations are deadlocked, could shake the market to trump the ruling ability and the confidence of the policy outlook, so if in this case, does not exclude the enlarged market volatility.